2026 · week 12.
North Carolina at Virginia
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · Scott Stadium · Picks use the ratings from Oct 31.
North Carolina 58%
When North Carolina has the ball
| Category | North CarolinaOffense | VirginiaDefense | 1A avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | |||
| Plays per game | 51.2#126 | 49.0#116 | 57.7 |
| Style | |||
| Pass rate | 53.2%#42 | 45.7%#110 | 49.1% |
| Standard downs | 46.8%#42 | 35.8%#123 | 42.3% |
| Passing downs | 66.7%#63 | 65.1%#75 | 64.9% |
| Efficiency | |||
| Success rate | 48.3%#38 | 38.0%#43 | 44.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 18.0%#26 | 11.8%#36 | 15.7% |
| Yards per play | 6.24#72 | 5.27#48 | 6.25 |
| Third down | 41.0%#79 | 35.7%#49 | 42.3% |
| Stuff rate | 13.5%#38 | 16.5%#93 | 16.4% |
| Scoring | |||
| Finish | 4.59#11 | 3.88#114 | 3.60 |
| Disruption | |||
| Turnover rate | 2.9%#131 | 2.4%#28 | 1.6% |
| Havoc rate | 6.8%#132 | 6.5%#17 | 4.0% |
When Virginia has the ball
| Category | VirginiaOffense | North CarolinaDefense | 1A avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pace | |||
| Plays per game | 57.6#70 | 65.0#12 | 57.7 |
| Style | |||
| Pass rate | 45.5%#102 | 48.3%#85 | 49.1% |
| Standard downs | 39.7%#98 | 43.5%#58 | 42.3% |
| Passing downs | 62.2%#89 | 60.3%#107 | 64.9% |
| Efficiency | |||
| Success rate | 47.2%#44 | 43.8%#101 | 44.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#94 | 8.9%#6 | 15.7% |
| Yards per play | 5.78#95 | 5.20#46 | 6.25 |
| Third down | 30.8%#128 | 39.6%#85 | 42.3% |
| Stuff rate | 12.1%#22 | 10.4%#136 | 16.4% |
| Scoring | |||
| Finish | 4.57#12 | 3.29#68 | 3.60 |
| Disruption | |||
| Turnover rate | 0.3%#6 | 1.5%#76 | 1.6% |
| Havoc rate | 5.2%#110 | 5.0%#57 | 4.0% |
Stats through week 9. The # is a rank, 1 best, not a percentile. Teams without a number are left out. Rates need 25 plays. Standard downs are first down, second and 7 or fewer, and third or fourth and 4 or fewer.